This summary report of the second quarter provides a high-level view of global economic data as well as global and U.S. economic trends. In addition, it examines individual market segments, including U.S. fixed income, U.S. equity, global equity, international equity, hedge funds, private equity, and real assets.
While some people are crying out that the U.S. economy is dead or dying, the economy itself seems to be protesting otherwise. Look for continued slow but steady growth in the United States and globally, with commodity prices stabilizing and Japanese supply chain worries easing. But policy and market action are needed to restore investors' confidenc...
The world continues to work through a long-term structural shift of economic and political influence to a group of emerging economies, most notably China and India, while the developed world fights the hangover of more than a decade of excessive spending and debt accumulation. These long-term structural changes should drive patterns of economic gro...
The authors have contended since late 2008 that the global deleveraging process is likely to occur in multiple stages and last until 2014 or 2015. Investors need to be aware of this cycle in allocating assets and to focus on capital preservation while resisting the temptation to be swayed by short-term volatility.
The marginal utility of the Fed's tools is decreasing. And relying on that one agency to turn activity from the greatest recession on record does not seem logical. The rest of Washington needs to notice the economic malaise and work together to resolve some of the economic challenges we face.
Recent economic reports have presented relatively good news, but investors seem unwilling to buy in to optimism. Although recent price declines have pushed stocks into bear market territory, stocks remain a good choice vs. cash for long-term investors. In 10 years, stock earnings and valuations are likely to be higher than today.
Real estate has long been recognized as a diversification vehicle within investment portfolios and often is held in one of two ways: physical real estate and Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs). Although REITs were first created in the early 1960s and have played a notable role for investors since the 1990s, they have not always been a requiremen...
Investors were recently challenged after the U.K. referendum on membership in the European Union (the Brexit vote). Although the polls predicted a tight race, the markets were signaling that a vote to remain would prevail. As the facts of the market changed, it was critical that opinions adapted to evaluate whether an investor was on track to reach...
Prior to the Brexit vote on June 23, financial markets were relatively strong. The S&P 500 index was trading just under its all-time high and the British pound was at the highest level of the year. The day after the vote, markets reacted sharply with risk-assets dropping and safe haven assets rising. Oil, the S&P 500, and the FTSE Eurotop 1...
There were two distinct periods during the quarter divided by sentiment and performance. The start of the year through February 11 was a “risk-off” period of negative sentiment and sharp declines across asset classes and countries. Many assets had double-digit declines during the first half of the quarter. Sentiment shifted abruptly and...
Bond markets globally were off to a slow start at the beginning of the quarter, but began to drive higher as the Brexit vote approached and eventually jumped on the result as investors sought out safe-haven assets. The Barclays Universal Bond Index gained 2.53 percent in the second quarter; the gauge has advanced 5.68 percent so far this year throu...
The 'leave' campaign, a victory for the pro-Brexit voters, was quite a surprise to markets and the world. The United Kingdom, based on a referendum of all eligible citizens, voted to leave the European Union (EU) and became the first country to do so. The effects of the referendum vote are already being felt in the political spectrum and th...
UK’s vote to leave the EU has escorted in what could be a long period of uncertainty and volatility in the market. There is also skepticism about the recent, liquidity-driven bounce in risky assets. Overall, global equities and bonds should be range bound during the remainder of 2016, although both are at the higher end of their prospective r...
Looking back over the first half of 2016, the FTSE 100 index increased by 6.7 percent when dividend payments are taken into account. However, this positive performance disguises the substantial equity market volatility seen in February, and again following the Brexit decision in June. The moves in the headline index are again misleading and market ...
Impact investing has gone mainstream. The Employee Retirement Income Security Act of 1974 (ERISA), which regulates single-employer and multi-employer private pension plans, now officially agrees. Recent regulatory guidance clarifies that ERISA fiduciaries may now consider ESG, impact, and other factors in their investment decisions.