Europe has entered a new stage of the debt crisis, as funding stress in the banking sector has risen to extremes. The bond spreads of Belgium, Austria and France have risen to 290, 150 and 155bps respectively, record highs and 5 to 6 standard deviations above norm. The current trends may be unsustainable if left unchecked for more than a few weeks.
As shown by local bans in the US and Canada, national moratoriums in France and Bulgaria, and tighter regulation in Australia and the UK, the global anti-fracking movement has mounted an effective campaign against the extraction of unconventional gas through hydraulic fracturing (‘fracking’). Meanwhile, the oil and gas industry has largely failed t...
The phrase is often heard that financial markets do not like uncertainty. The uncertainty surrounding the November elections in the U.S. is behind us. However, much uncertainty remains. The main sources of that uncertainty include the fiscal cliff, the need to increase the federal debt ceiling, the absolute level of the federal debt, and the regula...
President Obama will head into his second term in January facing a divided Congress that looks a lot like the Congress of the last two years of his first term – with the Democrats controlling the Senate and conservative Republicans solidly controlling the House of Representatives. With the country facing immense and immediate fiscal challenges that...
For well over a year now, investors have dreaded the US’s looming “fiscal cliff”—the combination of federal budget cuts and tax increases scheduled to take effect on January 1, 2013. Should America’s gridlocked Congress not agree on a work around, some economists, credit ratings agencies and government forecasters believe the US economy could slow ...
The world’s largest developed economies continue to experience modest and volatile growth as they work off excess debt accumulated over the previous decades. Global growth is unlikely to come in a straight line, due to the instability caused by excess debt and the inconsistency and cyclicality of governmental policy response. In fact, in the near-t...
While political pundits work overtime to draw profound conclusions from Tuesday’s election results, the implications for the financial markets seem less than momentous. Election night was clearly much better for Democrats than Republicans, but this was a status quo outcome. Until the 2014 mid-term elections, the players will be President Obama, a G...
Pension plan sponsors face significant challenges. Retirement obligations continue to increase, and the two major equity market set-backs in 2000 and 2008 have produced widening funding gaps. So what does the future hold? Will their plans be able to reliably achieve their stated return objectives? Unfortunately for plans relying solely on tradi...
This paper looks at the possibility of an upturn in housing and the headwinds most likely to impede a robust recovery.
With the International Monetary Fund and most analysts ratcheting down global growth forecasts, no end in sight for Europe’s fiscal and financial challenges, and a looming fiscal cliff in the United States, there is considerable hope that China, the world’s second largest economy, can remain an engine of global growth. Only Chinese growth his slowi...
The fourth quarter 2012 issue of Global Foresight features a discussion of the recent QE3 (quantitative easing) announcement by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and the related inflation and market implications, along with a discussion of the current geopolitical overlay.
The upcoming election is as much about how we address fiscal issues as it is about the pace of the remedy; at the center is the debate over taxes and the size of government.
Current U.S. fiscal policy, if not modified before year-end, is on track to deliver a $600 billion economic headwind in 2013 (the equivalent of 4 percent of U.S. GDP), while the 2012 presidential and congressional elections add another layer of uncertainty to an already complex and politically challenged situation.
Equity markets around the globe took a breather from the prior six months’ impressive run-up. Since the 2011 low on October 4, 2011, the MSCI World Index had rallied 22% by the end of March 2012. A mild pull-back is thus nothing unusual. However, the financial market optimism exhibited in the first quarter of 2012 has been tainted with a dose of un...
hat a difference a new year makes. Fueled by massive liquidity injection from the European Central Bank (ECB) and expectations of additional easing from central banks around the globe, stocks raced out of the starting gate and left bearish sentiment in the dust.