The commodities market appears to be recovering, but will it continue to improve throughout 2020? Find out which economic factors will drive—or sink—the asset class.
In this exclusive chat with Mellody Hobson, the President and co-CEO of Ariel Investments, speaks candidly about the importance and value of diversity in finance—how being color brave can improve business and society at large. Mellody shares personal stories and lessons learned from her investment career, including the disconnect tha...
Much of the trade conflict between the U.S. and China can be traced to China’s desire to be a technological power. It is difficult for China to do much more than play catch-up in established technology like semiconductors, where improvements are incremental. Still, emerging technologies such as AI, robotics, quantum computing, and next-gen IT...
Climate change occurs slowly over time, which may make it an easy risk factor for investors to ignore. Recent studies suggest that climate change will have a negative economic impact on long-term global GDP. Over the shorter term, investor concerns about global warming may be priced into their assessment of stocks and bonds. As with any long-term s...
As part of the investment review process, there is the identification of key areas of focus or themes that will drive investment returns over the immediate term. This quarterly update highlights market and economic considerations relevant in the context of enhancing risk-adjusted outcomes, beginning with evolving global growth dynamics.
The familiar cliché that hindsight is 20/20 seems particularly apt as we step into the year 2020 and look back on the decade of the 2010s. Throughout the past 10 years, we returned time and time again to principles and themes that we considered vital for success not just in this decade, but any decade. Revisiting the core principles and themes, whi...
The pursuit of forecasting what opportunities and obstacles lie ahead takes added importance when looking at a new year and new decade to come. What follows are some thoughts about the opportunities and challenges before us, along with the identification of significant trends that will guide our analysis and portfolio recommendations. In addition, ...
In 2020, we see a slightly better economic growth environment but modest capital market returns relative to the stellar gains of 2019. The global economy and markets will take two steps forward as stimulus measures lead to firming global growth, but policy uncertainty will cause markets to periodically take a step back. The U.S. election will come ...
Although climate risk is likely underestimated by financial markets, investors would be wise to consider it in their investment decision-making process. Given the expected future repricing of this risk, there is a window of opportunity for investors to get ahead of the curve. This paper provides a high-level overview of the current climate sci...
2019 witnessed an uncommon surge for both risky and safe assets as stocks and bonds had their biggest simultaneous gains in more than two decades. An improving outlook on the economy, progress between the U.S. and China on trade, and the Fed’s interest rate cuts boosted investors’ confidence. However, fears of a global manufacturing slo...
In seeking to evaluate the risk and return potential for a range of asset classes within the anticipated investment environment, there is caution given the deceleration in the economic cycle indicators that are monitored. A recession is not anticipated in 2020, but the conditions could change rapidly and investors should be prepared to make adjustm...
As technological advances are disrupting and transforming companies in every sector, the traditional investing landscape is also being disrupted. Venture capital is at the core of the transformation and has become a critical component of a long-term investment strategy. With the potential for attractive returns and significant impact to society, ve...
It is an open question whether investors in 2020 will remain as sanguine as they did in 2019. The U.S. and China are settling into a protracted battle over strategic interests, global economic growth is slowing, and central banks are running out of options. Meanwhile, political uncertainty is elevated with voters voicing their frustrations everywhe...
When developing capital market assumptions, most forecasters start with assumptions around two of the most fundamental economic variables: growth and inflation. Research indicates that demographics influence both growth and inflation for a given region. The supporting data behind the phenomenon and other initial baseline assumptions outlines our ca...
Millions of new jobs have been created since 2010, with unemployment close to its lowest level since the late 60s. Though the U.S. has experienced one of the longest economic expansions ever, wage growth has been modest. Technological innovation and the impact of the Great Recession has altered labor market dynamics.