Rockefeller Financial Managing Director Jimmy Chang looks at Greece's possible exit from the euro, the cooling of global markets and Facebook's disappointing IPO.
Interest rates continue to bump along near historical lows. Given the asymmetric risk/reward of holding bonds with extraordinarily low yields, some investors have been reconsidering their holdings. Investors worried about rising interest rates have several options (among them, shortening duration and using derivatives), but none are without opportu...
We anticipate a period of market consolidation leading up to, and including, the summer and would not be surprised to see more elevated levels of volatility. However, over the longer term we see risk assets continuing to be supported by valuations and abundant liquidity, although tail risks to growth from global fiscal policy remain.
Equity valuations are at historically cheap levels given slowly recovering growth in developed markets, robust emerging market demand, global monetary easing, and signs of an improvement in corporate earnings prospects. We believe that this interesting combination of circumstances will underpin continuing buoyancy in equity markets, particularly in...
Although a multitude of risks remain, including the unresolved situation in Europe, geopolitical risks from Iran, and fiscal austerity in developed nations around the globe, markets are enjoying the moment, allowing risk assets to flourish and volatility, at least as measured by the VIX index, to retrench to a seven-month low.
The effect of high oil prices on the financial markets is not clear, as there is evidence to support both a benign and more worrying view. In general, investors will start to discount a worse economic environment if we sustain significant future price increases, but the current level of global oil prices should not be a deal-killer for growth or ri...
We remain vigilant in assessing near-term and longer-term risks, including U.S. austerity, resurfacing of Eurozone tensions, a Chinese economic slowdown, and oil prices/conflict in Iran. Market gains from here will be built on the back of these risks further receding and the maintenance of global economic growth. We have more confidence in the latt...
We continue to be optimistic that earnings will validate market prices, suggesting equities will offer greater reward than bonds. Selected equities also have dividend yields above those available from investment-grade bonds. In many instances, these dividends are supported by growing earnings, raising the likelihood of their increase.
The weak March U.S. jobs report caught investors by surprise, but we think it’s reflective of the muted growth environment faced by developed nations. U.S. economic activity was likely boosted in the first quarter by exceptionally mild weather, and we should expect some payback during coming months
The pace of U.S. job growth in the next few months will not only determine the outcome of the November presidential election but also whether there will be a sustainable economic recovery. If the sharp slowdown in job creation in March is a precursor for developments in subsequent months as we suspect, the mid-year slowdown witnessed in the past co...
The economic outlook has become slightly more mixed, especially in regard to the manufacturing sector and consumer spending after adjustments for inflation. Driving these inflation statistics and market anxieties higher were oil prices, and with the average price of gasoline in the U.S. nearing $4 per gallon once again, real questions have emerged ...
Fiscal imbalances, monetary imbalances, and trade imbalances are serious issues that will continue to impact the relative value of the U.S. dollar, and none of these situations is easily solved. The concerns they raise should be given deep consideration by dollar-based investors moving forward.
If the current growth trend in bank credit continues, a failure on the part of the FOMC to raise its federal funds rate target and shrink its balance sheet will sow the seeds of a rate of consumer inflation above the FOMC’s 2% annualized target in 2014 and 2015.
The financial crisis that began almost five years ago is still with us, and we are still dominated by the events unfolding in Europe. What are some of the root causes of the crisis, and what is the future likely to hold? This white paper examines the evolution of the financial crisis and offers advice on how investors might best navigate the comple...
Fox interview with Nan-b de Gaspe Beaubien in Montreal. In an effort to broaden our global perspective, this is our second look at internationally based family groups.