The 2024 U.S. Presidential election is set as a rematch between current President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump. Each candidate’s fiscal priorities have already been on display in their first terms and give insight into second-term agendas. This brief outlook by Asset Consulting Group compares their track records and the market impact, including the growing borrowing costs for the treasury that are putting a greater burden on the federal budget.

More than $80 trillion of wealth is expected to be transferred within families over the next two decades. Given the rise in wealth and aging populations globally, the number of family offices has surged to help guide succession planning and the transfer of assets. This brief outlook by Asset Consulting Group further highlights the investing trends impacting the path forward for families and family offices that is shifting as the next generation potentially reorients family goals toward qualitative objections (mission-driven) in addition to quantitative metrics (investment returns).

For most of the period from the Global Financial Crisis in 2008 through the end of the COVID pandemic in 2022, the Federal Reserve held interest rates near zero. As post-pandemic inflation surged in early 2022, the Federal Reserve began a rapid rate-hike cycle that ended in July 2023 with the Federal Funds Rate at 5.25% - 5.50%. As noted in this Investment Report, the yields above 5% attracted investors to money market funds as total assets grew approximately 20% in 2023 to more than $6 trillion.

The uneven historic GDP growth, deflation, and low corporate productivity have made Japan a tough market for investors. But given the strong performance in 2023, the Japanese market is changing. Starting with Abenomics more than a decade ago and the more recent initiatives by Japanese stock exchanges, the tangible changes in Japan are attracting investors once again.

Investors have been looking for a recession amidst rising interest rates and expectations for slowing growth, but continued growth in much of the economy and resilient investment performance in 2023 has made for a very murky economic puzzle going forward. Exogenous factors such as geopolitical instability, deglobalization, and continuing risk of a U.S. government shutdown add complicating risk factors to the economic outlook.

Artificial Intelligence (AI), which is being considered “The Fourth Industrial Revolution,” is the latest innovation and technology disruption fueling growth and reshaping societies alike. While there are investment opportunities where big winners are reaping the benefits of AI, the future of AI remains uncertain. In this early stage of AI advancement, it is important to understand the inherent risks of concentrating portfolios in themes and trends—including AI—that are likely to evolve and shift over time.

Bank failures, tighter monetary policy, and rising fear of a “hard landing” have heightened economic uncertainty. Despite these challenges, inflation is subsiding, consumer spending is stable, and the labor market remains strong. In light of the market turbulence, investors are reacting to any news, positive or negative, in search of clarity about the future.

Three years since the inception of the COVID pandemic, market adaptation remains a work in process. Inflation and monetary policy drive daily volatility, but additional risks could arise. Despite volatility, major indices have experienced gains that are consistent with longer-term trends.

Real estate can play an important role in diversified portfolios by acting as a hedge against rising prices. However, like other income producing asset classes, rising interest rates can put downward pressure on real estate valuations. Can real estate offer investors inflation protection if the Federal Reserve continues to raise rates to combat higher prices?

Decades of globalization have led to the developed world relying more on foreign nations, sometimes with competing interests. The pandemic and recent geopolitical events have shifted attention to the challenges inherent to an increasingly connected world. As nations—and companies—reconsider their cross-border relationships, how does this impact investors?

Many of the challenges the fixed income market has experienced are part of the natural long-term economic cycle. While volatility is likely to remain in 2022, diversified fixed income portfolios can benefit from the rise in interest rates and wider credit spreads.

The challenging market environment and the fear of several interest rate increases by the U.S. Federal Reserve in 2022 has led to a sell-off in global equities. Concurrently, the U.S. is facing inflation rates not seen in more than 40 years, adding to investor concerns. The Dollar's resilience continues to negatively impact Non-Dollar investment returns for U.S. investors.

Diversification is an easy concept to adopt but a hard concept to maintain, particularly when there are extreme periods of concentrated market leadership. While US large caps have outperformed non-US equities over the past decade, the outlook and rewards are different when taking the long-term goals approach with non-US equities.

Last year was another challenging and disruptive year for public health and global trade. Despite pandemic-driven dislocations, supportive government policies propelled most economies and “risk assets” higher. With the potential for recent tailwinds to become headwinds, how should investment portfolios be positioned going forward?

Manager selection is a critical component of success in any asset class, but particularly in private equity, where manager return dispersion is meaningfully wider than in public markets. Over time, the factors influencing private equity manager selection have become more complex. Investors should account for these changes but remain focused on key factors with a proven history of driving positive outcomes.

Blockchain's primary use and application is to facilitate cryptocurrency transactions—which has helped drive strong investor interest in crypto, along with its high potential return and low correlation to traditional assets. However, there are a number of risks that investors should evaluate before considering an allocation to crypto.

Chinese equities have lagged both emerging market and global equity indices year to date. Recent regulations directed toward education and technology companies have caused Chinese equities to come under pressure. As further regulatory actions appear likely, should investors continue to allocate to Chinese equities?

Near-term inflation concerns have raised investor interest in real assets. While core real estate offers a steady foundation for a diversified real assets portfolio, infrastructure can serve as a high-quality complement that can help protect against inflation and benefit total return.

We are currently experiencing one of the longest periods of U.S. dollar strength in the last 50 years, leading some to question if it’s time for a reversal. Learn what drives the dollar and how it impacts various asset classes and influence portfolio positioning.

Private equity has been an established asset class for institutional and private investors for well over two decades. The potential for outsize returns and exposure to the most exciting and innovative companies continues to drive investors toward the asset class.